That’s just a try to give a short analysis of USD/JPY for the nearest future. Both traders, trading that pair, and analysts will find it useful.
USD/JPY continues holding about 98 inspite of bears’ trying to push it to 97. On daily graph we see the the target of rise is about 100-101.00 - long-term trend since 2007. So, dollar might reach that target, but then fall down deeply.
For the two first days of the last week the rate came down to 97. Then trend was moving between 97.00 and 98.50. The end of the week has shown us 98.40. Somehow, the price might rise higher.
The target of upward moving could be the level of that year’s maximum – 101.4. But only the breakout can open Dollar the way to the year’s minimum – 87.00, which is quite unlikely to happen.
Analysis of Ichimoku on daily graph shows us, that bulls’ positions are quite strong. We ca see, that the rate is kept by the cloud. The low border of the cloud is the line of support. Till the end of the month that border will be situated near 97.50. It means, that trend is likely to go upward.
So, there are three possible ways for the situation to develop:
A. Rise up to 99.00 (50% possibility)
B. Fluctuation between 97.50 – 99.00 (30% possibility)
C. Fall below 97.50 (20% possibility)
There you see the basic lines of support and resistance of USD/JPY:
| Resistance | Support |
| 100.00 – just psychological level | 97.50 – the low border of Ichimoku cloud |
| 101.00 – downward trend since 2007 | 97.30 – the low border of upward channel – upward trend 2009 |
| 101.43 – 2009 year maximum | 87.15 – 2008 year minimum |
| 124.10 – long-term maximum | 79.75 – historical minimum in 1995 |
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