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SEPTEMBER 10, 2007
View on USD/JPY: Payrolls hurt the dollar
September 10, 2007 - September 14, 2007
View on USD/JPY: Payrolls hurt the dollar.
GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY
+2556 pips - this is the trading result our forex signals providers made for the last week.
More details at our web-site: Forex Signals Service.
The disastrous US payrolls report on Friday last week hit the USD/JPY in quite an aggressive way. During the morning session in Europe, USD/JPY drifted sideways in the 115.00- area. And then the pair tumbled from above a 115 level before the publication of the payrolls to the 113.15-area later in US trading. 200 pips decline for the day in the whole. This morning at the open in Asia, the USD/JPY decline first continued, but the pair finally found some support in the 112.60-area. The picture is still correcting. Though, after Friday's US data we don't see any reason the yen to change the course. Now the pair may easily achieve and even get over the resistance at 111.60. We still look to sell USD/JPY.
Last week two of our scripts were partly fulfilled: (30%): Correcting fluctuations in the range of 114.00-117.50 and (40%): A decline towards 111.60 level and we expect the further development for the second script. The pair fell almost 300 pips down last week reaching the 113-shape region. The side fluctuations range at 114.00-117.00 was broken down and now the August intra-day lows at111.60 area come back in the picture. Additional floor is eyed at May's 2006 low region at 109.00. But a break below the 111.60 support is needed for this decline.
Script 1 (70%): A decline towards 111.60 level.
It is quite possible a course decline again hitting the August's low at 111.60. But after that a rebound and rising up back to 117.00 is possible again. Though it is very possible a further decline.
Script 2 (10%): A further decline towards 109.00 level.
It is quite possible a further course decline hitting the 109-shape area where May's 2006 low is. This script will be expected after the 111.60 level breakout.
Script 3 (20%): A recovery up to 117.00-118.00.
It must not be ruled out the next rise hitting the highs at 117.00-118.00. But after any of such correction rising there is a high possibility for the next decline towards the support achieved at 111.60.
Resistances
117.00/20 - the line trend projection from January 2005.
118.50 - the broken out May's trend from 2006.
119.90 - August's high.
124.10 - the year and longstanding highs.
Supports
113.10 - the last week low.
111.60 - the local low and 2007 low.
109.00 - May's 2006 low.
101.70 - the longstanding lows in 2004-2005.
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